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FM! AMCONSUL’ HONG KONG
TO: SECSTATE. WASHDC PRIORITY 5455! oe
INFO! AMEMBASSY TAIPEI kr ig
CINCPAC ae
CINCPAC FOR POLAD cane
COMUSTDC: ee
CHMAAG! TAIPEI Pe on

S.E— CR ET HONG KONG 8599 8"

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NOFORN ga Ue

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4 SUBJECT: GRC FEARS/ GHECOM. ATTACK’
‘® REFR TAIPEL'S 43743 CINCPAC'S 982315

fo GRC’ CONCERN OVER POSSTBLE CHICOM: ACTION AGAINST’
OFFeSHORES MAY BE HETGHTENED BY RECENT SPATE! CHIGOM
REFERENCES TO LIBERATION: TAIWANe AS EXAMPLE» AT SEPT®
7° PEKING: MASS RALLY CELEBRATING. ESTABLISHMENT REVOLUTIONARY i
COMMITTEES THROUGHOUT NATION CHOU: EN-LAIs» ACCORDING
NCNAs. NOTED THAT “TAIWAN: PROVINCE: REMAINS: BE! LIBERATED> on
WE? WILL: LIBERATE: TAIWANe™ HOWEVER» CHOU'S: AND ALL! OTHER gas
RECENT MENTIONS OF TAIWAN HAVE BEEN BRIEF: AND. MADE: IN: .
CONTEXT REMARKS WELCOMING ESTABLISHMENT LAST TWO REMAINING
REVOLUTIONARY COMMITTEES. THEY CLEARLY DESIGNED:
AS’ NECESSARY QUALIFICATION TO. ASSERTION THAT ENTIRE

NATION NOW RED AND. DO. NOT FORESHADOW CHICOM EFFORT ;
PREPARE POPULATION FOR. POSSIBLE EFFORT "LIBERATE: :
TAIWAN! IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

@ @o AS. STATED REFTELSs EVIDENCE: OF: CHICOM: MATERIAL:

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PAGE @2 WONG K. 98599 1g1247Z

PREPARATIONS FOR ATTACKS. ON OFF*SHORES’ ALSO. LACKING.

ANY EFFORT UNDERTAKE: SUCH, PREPARATIONS WOULD: BE! SERIOUSLY’
COMPLACATED BY CHAOTIC: STATE NATION'S ADMINISTRATIVE®S
POLETICAL! AND ECONOMIC STRUCTURES AND BY PLA'S GROWING
AND. ALREADY UNPRECEDENTED: INVOLVEMENT IN CIVIL’ POLITICAL:
AFFAIRS» PRESUMABLY PURSUED AT GREAT COST TO: COMBAT
EFFECTIVENESS» MOREQVER® FUKIENs THE LOGICAL’ BASE FOR
OPERATIONS AGAINST OFF*SHORESs HAS BEEN ONE: OF THE

MOST DESTURBED PROVINCES THROUGHOUT CULTURAL! REVOLUTION
AND LETTERS INDICATE COASTAL! AREAS» INCLUDING AMOYs STILL
TROUBLED BY LARGE*SCALE: VIOLENCES AS RECENTLY AS MID=.
AUGUBT

30 WE. DO NOT THINK IT LIKELY THAT CHICOM: LEADERSHIP
WOULD SEEK EASE INTERNAL! PROBLEMS THROUGH: EXTERNAL
ADVENTURE’ REGIME’S HISTORY DEVOID: EVIDENCE THAT ITS
FOREIGN POLICY CHARACTERIZED BY SUCH APPROACH» FOR
EXAMPLEs MOST RECENT CHICOM EFFORTS PREPARE POPULACE

FOR POSSIBLE WAR WAS MIDe1965 WHEN NATION COMPARATIVELY
STABLE. AND DANGER EXPANSION. VIETNAM WAR APPEARED REAL’ TO:
PEKINGe AS DANGER RECEDED’ IN PEKING*S CALCULATIONS»

SO‘ DID EMPHASIS ON POSSIBLE WAR» DESPITE: GROWING: INTERNAL
PROBLEMSe WAR PREPARATIONS THEME CONTINUES BE ADVANCED
PERIODICALLY» BUT IN LOW#KEY AND IN MANNER INTENDED

WARN. CHINESE PEOPLE THAT US AND/OR GRC MAY SEEK TAKE
ADVANTAGE: CULTURAL REVOLUTION TURMOTL. TO LAUNCH ATTACKe
THIS LINEs WHICH REINFORCED. BY RECENT REFERENCES TO NEED
DEVELOP FRONTIER DEFENSES» AND FACT THAT CHINESE HEAVILY

. REINFORCED COASTAL AREAS DURING HARD TIMES OF {962 IN

FEAR! GRC INVASION ATTEMPT» STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT LEADER=
SHIP. MORE: LIKELY REGARD INTERNAL! PROBLEMS AS ENHANCING
THREAT FROM ABROAD THAN. AS: STIMULUS’ FOR: EXTERNAL
ADVENTURE»

4o THESE FACTORS LEAD US CONCLUDE THaT GRC FEARS
CURRENTLY WITHOUT SUBSTANCE. AND THAT ANY’ EFFORT
REASSURE GRC WHICH INVOLVES. US MILATARY MOVEMENTS
SHOULD BE CAREFULLY WEIGHED IN TERMS POSSIBLE. MIS=.
READING BY CHICOMS.

GPafo

JACOBSON

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